{"id":770,"date":"2020-06-01T22:41:35","date_gmt":"2020-06-02T02:41:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/mehmetulutas.com\/?p=770"},"modified":"2021-02-22T13:22:12","modified_gmt":"2021-02-22T18:22:12","slug":"ekonomide-geri-donus-ne-zaman","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mehmetulutas.com\/index.php\/2020\/06\/01\/ekonomide-geri-donus-ne-zaman\/","title":{"rendered":"EKONOM\u0130DE \u201cGER\u0130 D\u00d6N\u00dc\u015e\u201d NE ZAMAN"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Koronavir\u00fcs vakalar\u0131 ve \u00f6l\u00fcmleri nihayet d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte. Art\u0131k en hayatta en endi\u015felendi\u011fimiz \u015fey olan \u00f6l\u00fcm korkusu yerini, en az\u0131ndan \u015fimdilik, i\u015fsiz ve paras\u0131z kalma korkusuna, yani ekonomik endi\u015felere b\u0131rakt\u0131. Art\u0131k hepimiz ekonominin nas\u0131l ve ne zaman \u201cgeri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u201d yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 merak ediyoruz.

Amerika\u2019da pandemi y\u00fcz\u00fcnden son 3 ayda 40 milyondan fazla insan i\u015fini kaybetti. En \u00e7ok i\u015f\u00e7i \u00e7\u0131karmak zorunda kalan sekt\u00f6rler s\u0131ras\u0131yla \u015f\u00f6yle olu\u015ftu: Otelcilik (10), Spor ve G\u00f6steri (9), Mobilya ve Dekorasyon (8), Restoran ve Barlar (7), Sinema ve M\u00fczik (6), Di\u015f\u00e7ilik (5), Kuru Temizleme ve Ki\u015fisel Hizmetler (4), Giyim-Ku\u015fam (3), E\u011flence Parklar\u0131 ve Kumarhaneler (2), Seyahat Turlar\u0131 (1).

Bir\u00e7ok ba\u015fka ticaret sekt\u00f6r\u00fc de b\u00fcy\u00fck vurgun yedi. \u00d6rne\u011fin Amerika\u2019daki havayolu \u015firketleri iflas\u0131n e\u015fi\u011fine geldi. THY yar\u0131 yar\u0131ya devletin olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen yine de ayakta kalabilmek i\u00e7in bir s\u00fcr\u00fc tasarruf tedbiri almak zorunda kald\u0131. Di\u011fer sekt\u00f6rlerde olan s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lara \u00f6nceki yaz\u0131lar\u0131mda de\u011finmi\u015ftim.

Bir\u00e7ok iktisat uzman\u0131 geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn U veya W modelinde olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. U modeline g\u00f6re ekonomi dibe vuracak, orada uzun bir s\u00fcre zigzaglar \u00e7izecek ve nihayetinde tekrar h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde yukar\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kacak. W modelinde ise ekonomi bu sonbahara dek y\u00fckselecek, ikinci salg\u0131n dalgas\u0131 gelince tekrar dip yapacak ve bir s\u00fcre sonra tekrar yukar\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kacak. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte benzer ekonomik s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lardan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f ortalama 20 ay alm\u0131\u015f.

Bir \u00f6rnek vererek bu s\u00fcreci a\u00e7\u0131klamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fay\u0131m. Bizim \u015firketin \u015fu anda 2020 sonuna kadar yetecek i\u015fi var. Ama problem yeni i\u015flerin az gelmesi ve takvimdeki projelerin iptal olmas\u0131. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc m\u00fc\u015fterilerimizin bir \u00e7o\u011fu \u015fu anda zararda ve nakit ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 durma noktas\u0131nda. \u00d6ncelikleri elemanlar\u0131n\u0131n maa\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6deyebilmek ve sadece operasyonel olarak kritik ama k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck projeleri yapmak.

Hem A.B.D. hem de T\u00fcrkiye h\u00fck\u00fcmetleri ekonomiyi yeniden a\u00e7ma ve canland\u0131rma ad\u0131na ciddi ad\u0131mlar att\u0131lar ve atmaya da devam ediyorlar. Ama bana g\u00f6re geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f yine de biraz zaman alacak. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u015fu anda zarar eden \u015firketlerin \u00f6nce kara ge\u00e7mesi laz\u0131mki yeni yat\u0131r\u0131mlar yapabilsinler. O y\u00fczden as\u0131l ekonomik krizi 2020 sonlar\u0131nda ve 2021 ba\u015flar\u0131nda ya\u015fayabiliriz.

Umar\u0131m ki yan\u0131l\u0131yorumdur. Hepimiz ayn\u0131 gemideyiz ve bu geminin biran \u00f6nce sahili selamete \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 laz\u0131m. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 zarf\u0131nda di\u015fimizi s\u0131kmaya devam edece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Koronavir\u00fcs vakalar\u0131 ve \u00f6l\u00fcmleri nihayet d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte. Art\u0131k en hayatta en endi\u015felendi\u011fimiz \u015fey olan \u00f6l\u00fcm korkusu yerini, en az\u0131ndan \u015fimdilik, i\u015fsiz ve paras\u0131z kalma korkusuna, yani ekonomik endi\u015felere b\u0131rakt\u0131. Art\u0131k hepimiz ekonominin nas\u0131l ve ne zaman \u201cgeri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u201d yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 merak ediyoruz. Amerika\u2019da pandemi y\u00fcz\u00fcnden son 3 ayda 40 milyondan fazla insan i\u015fini kaybetti. En \u00e7ok i\u015f\u00e7i […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":772,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[245],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nEKONOM\u0130DE \u201cGER\u0130 D\u00d6N\u00dc\u015e\u201d NE ZAMAN - Mehmet Y. Uluta\u015f<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/mehmetulutas.com\/index.php\/2020\/06\/01\/ekonomide-geri-donus-ne-zaman\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"EKONOM\u0130DE \u201cGER\u0130 D\u00d6N\u00dc\u015e\u201d NE ZAMAN - Mehmet Y. Uluta\u015f\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Koronavir\u00fcs vakalar\u0131 ve \u00f6l\u00fcmleri nihayet d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte. Art\u0131k en hayatta en endi\u015felendi\u011fimiz \u015fey olan \u00f6l\u00fcm korkusu yerini, en az\u0131ndan \u015fimdilik, i\u015fsiz ve paras\u0131z kalma korkusuna, yani ekonomik endi\u015felere b\u0131rakt\u0131. Art\u0131k hepimiz ekonominin nas\u0131l ve ne zaman \u201cgeri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u201d yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 merak ediyoruz. Amerika\u2019da pandemi y\u00fcz\u00fcnden son 3 ayda 40 milyondan fazla insan i\u015fini kaybetti. En \u00e7ok i\u015f\u00e7i […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/mehmetulutas.com\/index.php\/2020\/06\/01\/ekonomide-geri-donus-ne-zaman\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Mehmet Y. 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